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Mission impossible: The challenge is to double world food output by 2050 using less land, far less water and fewer nutrients – all in the teeth of increasing rates of drought. Credit: iStockphoto BARRING NUCLEAR WARS, pandemics and cosmic accidents, there will be about 9.1 billion people living in the world in 2050. Yet they will eat as much food as 13 billion people at today's nutritional levels. So how will we feed them all? The answer to this question could be the greatest scientific challenge of the 21st century – greater even than finding a solution to climate change. The problem is that humanity is consuming more food, year-on-year, than it produces, especially as demand for high-protein food increases in high population developing countries like China and India. The world is also moving towards a water crisis: cities are now taking up to half of the water that was once used to grow food, while groundwater levels are declining in every country where it is used for food production. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in the U.S. suggests that by 2025 water scarcity may inflict an annual loss of 350 million tonnes of food – roughly equivalent to losing today's global rice harvest or the entire U.S. grain crop. We're also losing land; we are building on it, eroding and degrading it, or locking it in conservation reserves. Whatever the cause, the total available area of arable land is now falling. Compounding this, we are losing nutrients in the land we do have. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation notes that we apply about 150 million tonnes of elemental fertiliser to our farms every year; however the U.S. Department of Agriculture points out that we lose six times that amount – an estimated 1.1 billion tonnes of nutrients – through soil erosion and leaching. The rise of biofuels presents another serious issue since it takes over arable land and diverts resources from food production (see, Non-crop biofuels to boost food security, Cosmos Online). It is estimated that by 2020 we will be burning 400 million tonnes of grain a year – equivalent to the entire world rice crop – just to keep our cars on the road. And if you thought those figures weren't alarming enough, then there's the issue thrown up by climate change. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the U.S. says "agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 per cent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 per cent." In light of all these hurdles, as I see it, the challenge is to double world food output by 2050 using less land, far less water and fewer nutrients – all in the teeth of increasing rates of drought. And we need to do it sustainably. Readers' comments
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The coming famine
With more and more grain stocks being fed to animals rather than humans, peak oil supply being reached, plus a burgeoning world population, it must be obvious that we are reaching new limits of the Earth's carrying capacity. There is a limit to how much food and biofuels that can be produced for the world's population while not destroying the ecology that keeps it functioning.
More wealthy people in Asia's middle classes are demanding meat and dairy products, exacerbating the problem. We will be polarised between those who can afford extravagant "western" diets and those who will starve! Consequently, we need to set an example of a sustainable diet for the rest of the world by
dismantling our damaging and resource-expensive livestock industries. We need to start investing in plant-based protein sources to supply our domestic and export markets. A plant-based diet is more than adequate for nourishment and avoids unhealthy animal fats and zoonoses.
The two avoided subjects of zero population growth and livestock industries need to be addressed if we are going to survive global warming, protect the planet's biodiversity and make food distribution more equitable.
Congratulations Cosmos & Cribb
Congratulations to Cosmos and Professor Cribb. Modern contributions to environmental matters including the availablity of resources such as food and water, now rarely seem to consider the impact of the sheer number of humans now on earth.
At least this vegetarian advocate seems to acknowledge that we need fewer humans on this planet. However, while the vegetarians around me seem to need to ingest even more manufactured vitamins and minerals than meat eating me, I shall still refer to my canine teeth when supporting my omnivorous diet. I continue to fear that the increasing number of sententious references to foodstuffs wasted on livestock intended for human consumption are just another opportunity for animal liberationists in their attempts to sever contact between homo sapiens and other species.
Canine teeth
The impact of the "sheer number of humans" on planet earth is blatantly obvious. The disparity between our "western diet" and the nutrient poor diet of millions of the world's poor is unjustifiable and immoral. We have too much; they have too little.
"Canine" teeth are for ripping and tearing food. The gorilla is a herbivore and has large canine teeth. Stop focusing on your canine teeth to justify your omnivore diet; look instead at your brain size. Do a little research, educate yourself and you will find that less meat and more vegetables would improve your health and be better for our planet.
Vegetarian diet
Just to clarify. I am not an advocate for vegetarianism.
I advocate the eating of a larger proportion of vegetables in the diet.
As there are over 1000 vegetables capable of being farmed which most of the world has never even tried, this could actually be a pleasurable experience, while saving an awful lot of land, water and energy.
Julian Cribb
A tough solution
Without all that support for the "third world" in the past decades there would be several billions (yes, billions) less to feed. Stop feeding those who make no effort or are not able to feed themselves, or at least tie support to stringent population control. Muhammad Yunus had the right idea when he made the five children maximum a condition of his micro loan program. Yes, babies will die, but every baby dead now will save many more from death in the future. This world was never meant to support 9 billion people under any conditions. -- Half the population a quarter of the problems!
Phah!
People keep pushing against genetically modified foods. They keep pushing for eating organic foods, and if you *must* eat meat, then keep it organic and free range, man! Make love, not food, man!
People argue and whine about the "unethical treatment of animals in large processing farms". But, they neglect to notice that over 2/3 of the world's population is BELOW the poverty lines; let alone the amount of under privileged people there are living in their own backyards. These people can't afford to shell out the $2 for one apple! Yes, I paid $2 for an organic apple...AN apple. Not a dozen. AN apple. One apple, when I'm expected to eat 4-8 servings of fruit a day. That's $16/day in just organic fruit...just apples. How much more would it cost me for organic wheat? Organic eggs? Organic meat? I'd need to make over $100,000/year to feed a family of 4 on organic only food.
Plus...the amount of crop loss, etc is far higher than chemically treated foods. You can't use effective chemicals to treat the plants and animals with, so there's a higher loss and a much lower yield. So, more land is needed to grow organic food.
How much land is needed to feed the 9.1 billion people of 2050? Forget the land, for a moment...what about the cost? How can these 9.5 billion people afford to eat organic food, even if it could be grown?
And all the while, the people of the Western World are sitting in their gated communities, sipping their lattes, and throwing out their half-eaten cheese burgers thinking, "Gee, I should do something."
The "Answer" to the famine.
In case you did not notice,those super-wealthy, super-powerful, and extremely well organized group of people that have ALREADY started to exterminate a certain number of people on the planet Earth, have the only answer for this very real and up-coming apocalyptic reality. Why do you think 9-11 happened? Why are we at war? Why is many of Americas enemies still alive and thriving? One-third of the worlds population WILL be exterminated by the year 2025. I PROMISE you this. The world is running out of everything. This is a fact that cannot be ignored. The above persons will rule the world with an iron fist and a handful of "servants" will be permitted to survive only to cater to those that rule. I have inside information to this and this is not an empty threat or some paranoid delusion. TRUST me! This will happen and there is nothing that you or I can do about this.